photo credit: Marc Albert/KRCB
Cloudy skies, rain expected through rest of week.

The first major storm of the season began arriving early Tuesday morning. It has proven very hard to predict, though forecasters say its unlikely to produce an epic deluge.

As recently as the weekend, forecasters were saying the north bay had an even chance of staying dry or being buried beneath ten inches of rain this week.

Rick Canapa is a National Weather Service Meteorologist.

"The storm is developing and interestingly, the surface pressures aren't falling too much like the could with strong systems, they're down near a thousand millibars, so it's not that strong of a system, but it still has a fair amount of atmospheric dynamics or energy with it," Canapa said.

The system, drifting out of the gulf of Alaska, is expected to stall about 500 miles off the coast, sending repeated waves of moisture ashore.

"Best chance of rain, initially, for the north bay, would be Tuesday and then off and on rain chances through the rest of the week," Canapa said.

It's unlikely we'll see buckets. Through Saturday, Santa Rosa is expected to see two inches of rain, San Rafael two and a third.

Winds strong enough to down power lines is also unlikely, though winds will pick up in coming days, Canapa said.

"From about mid-week to late week maybe up to 15 maybe 30 mile an hour winds." Canapa said.

The storm is expected to finally pass along to our southeast on Sunday.